HONG KONG — Acer laptop battery founder Stan Shih has made an apocalyptic prediction.
In 20 years time, he told a Taiwanese newspaper, major personal computer (PC) brands like Dell ( DELL - news - people ) and Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ - news - people ) won’t exist. They’ll be eclipsed by manufacturers who prioritize low costs, high volumes and cheap sticker prices–companies with strategies similar to Acer itself, based in Taiwan, or China’s Lenovo Latitude D810 battery.
“The trend for low-priced computers will last for the coming years,” Shih told Chinese-language newspaper Commercial Times. (His comments were widely translated.) “But U.S. computer makers just don’t know how to put such products on the market.”
But not everyone backs such a bleak forecast for American mainstays. Some technology consultants and market researchers, in fact, think up-and-comers from Asia are the impetus these companies need to try a new tack. Dell and HP have to rethink their focus, they say, even if that means moving away from PCs.
“The Acers and Lenovos may dominate the traditional PC and laptop Latitude D820 battery sectors, but will we need to store all our files on a local hard drive, and will we need to carry a laptop around?” says David Carini, managing director of Maverick China Research in Beijing. “Some of those leading U.S. companies may evolve into something else.”
Dell especially should focus less on reducing costs through labor and supply chains, according to Jessica Lo, managing director at Shanghai-based China Market Research Group. She says it should work on developing a piece of technology that a consumer or a business actually wants to buy.
